Lee Hotz (WSJ, Ozone Layer)

00:07:51

Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

Why wouldn't fault. Heavily populated areas and we're joined by Lee how much will feature talked to us about this. So I guess what exactly happened back in the late eighties we signed a big treaty we banned a whole bunch accountants. I thought the polar realism was. Improving but what what was this recent study. Well you'd you'd at the outline right there it is improving. Over Antarctica which is where the great ozone hole. Develops every year that attracted much attention and alarms so many people back in the late eighties. But it turns out of course like many good things about his plan is more complicated than we thought as we learn more. We are finding some new things to worry about it so. In 87. Montreal protocol. Past. I think at last count 197 nations have ratified it and it basically. And the chlorine and Borough mean chemicals. That destroyed. The as a player in the upper atmosphere in the course he has a wire for her mr. mindful. Is basically what keeps. All true violet be. Radiation from. Frying all this and one of the reasons that Mars is like Clinton's because. There is. So later in the atmosphere their block this radiation and basically their alliances to surface. We. Buried Gary. Game cancer community in payment anyway. As you suggest over the last thirty years or so people been monitoring the ozone hole over Antarctica. Very high altitude. And very slowly more slowly I think that's summit brought. It's starting to heal liaison has restored about 10% then maybe in another hundred years or so it'll be active. To normal however in the latest news is coming out of a international group for searchers. Yeah. Here in the US to places like flat and I institute. NASA the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And in. Those two world radiation centers. And he PH in Zurich to do very. Heavy duty group. Of people they've they've basically started looking lower. Down in the stratosphere to editors that part of the bears stuck like page five to thirty miles. Above the circus of the year and that's where the action through this and we now have. More satellites more sensors. And most importantly better statistical methods for. Daisy chaining all the stated together as the chief currency. Put some reliability. He's more subtle transit facilities folks found out what they reported last week. In the journal. Atmosphere. Physics and chemistry which is published by the year engineers and sciences union reputable group. Is that at the lower altitudes. They're seemed to be signs that. Not only is he as the players there not recovering. But worse it's continuing to decline at a rate that's actually larger than the recovery that we've been observing. At higher altitudes to this kind of. And worse and worse trouble and we don't know why. And I would expect these things to be more localized and can tell is it a lot worse in places that I would expect like Beijing new Dell the you know places with huge industrial production and and still developing economies or is it pretty widespread. It appears to be pretty widespread because of the nature of the chemistry involved and most importantly is sort of the broad. High altitude winds that they kind of active. As a mixer or just sort of bland. These these chemicals. Though it is pretty much across where blind them to your point though is that. Where there observing this decline this continuing to line is between. Sixty degrees so. Two and sixty degrees north to which used to say I agree the most heavily populated. Regions of our planet so that basically encompasses. You know practically everything from you know Berlin in the in the nor to. Align and doughboy and stars in the about. Can you reasonably tie Andy you know whether changes or other atmosphere changes to these very ozone depletion the received. Well you know that's an excellent question them as as Isaiah right now they've just identified its and so so they don't know but they they have some guesses and one of the things that might be going on as you suggest is that. As temperatures have risen. Worldwide over the last a couple of decades. That may have changed the overall. Pattern of winds circulation at altitude which which is kind of change health system. Chemistry. Takes place because these chemicals have to come in contact with each other. Then be exposed to sunlight so bad might be a factor. It may also be that there are. Chemicals not regulated currently under the my country a country. And things. There's one called direct forum I think for instance wishes. Very commonly used in chief paint stripper in. Foam blowing agents and other things like that and they don't. Come under the treaties so they're not regulated and when the treaty was passed nobody thought you'd have to worry about these things because. They didn't last long enough atmosphere to get up to work their way up to the very high altitude where. Chlorofluorocarbons. Were busy attacking the ozone layer so. Now it turns out production of these things has increased pretty dramatically in the last couple of years particularly in Asia. Southeast Asia and China told. So it may be that you know these things. Are responsible but the truth is right now nobody knows to. Well there are various scientists like to say we need more study. Yet the very actually early study I'm sure we'll hear more about me hot from the Wall Street Journal talked with the ozone layer depletion player Dermot and earnestly. Yeah. You know if you appear in the northeast you don't worry too much about hurricane picture in the EU occasionally one will rip up the northeast but it doesn't do the time the damage he saw. In Houston in Florida. But I can tell you the people that leave in those cities in the hurricane belt they even down to Texas or New Orleans a word Puerto Rico Virgin Islands. They weren't in the they have a genuine concern. And the you know are you gonna happen increase. In the number hurricanes now. The debate goes on. Fridays but the one proof in the pudding if you will would be with insurance companies are doing. You look it would insurance companies or do they don't want under this now he don't touch the end and that. You know the UNC. Put your money where your mouth right if you think all of that you know the climates not changing your we're not gonna have an increase in in in hurricanes. Rate and you start rate in the insurance and if it is as gaelic your you'll make a killing until that first Erica girls around.
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